Stop Sh*t Talking California High-Speed Rail
The eye-roll heard around the State
Say “California High-Speed Rail” at a backyard BBQ and you get two reactions: half the table will collectively let out a long, long sigh.
The other half will spend the rest of gathering repeating each other over and over. “Can you believe they haven’t even laid tracks yet!?” “I know, they’ll never get it done!” “I know! What a waste of money.” “I know. I mean, I didn’t vote for it!” “I know, me neither. They’re never gonna get it done.” “I know, can you believe they haven’t even laid any track yet?” …
Meanwhile, the same crowd gladly funds a trillion-dollar highway habit and hops $100 puddle-jump flights because “driving is freedom” and “planes are faster.” Time for a reality check.
1. Follow the money
Highways: California shells out ≈ $20-23 billion every single year on roads and upkeep. Adjust for inflation and the state has blown ~$1 trillion on blacktop since 1912.
Airports: A running total of around $200 billion for all the terminal remodels, runway rehabs, and “New T-1” grand openings in the state (in today’s dollars).
HSR: <$30 billion so far. Even the full San Francisco ⇄ Los Angeles line pencils out at $106-113 billion— a decade of the highway budget.
If cost overruns make you clutch pearls, point that energy at the six-lane-money-shredder.
2. Bang for the buck
*Base-rate compact + taxes + fuel @ $4.90/gal.
HSR lands in the sweet spot: plane-cheap without TSA mingling, car-flexible without wasting time or attention.
3. Speed isn’t everything; it’s the time it takes from door-to-door
SF ⇄ LA by car: 6-9 hours if I-5 behaves.
SF ⇄ LA by plane: 1 hour 15 minutes in the air plus ~3 hours curb-to-curb rituals.
SF ⇄ LA by HSR: 2 hours 40 minutes city-center to city-center. Show up 15 minutes before; keep your shoes on.
Same math crushes LA-SD and Eureka-SD. The shorter the hop, the more airport hassle wrecks the plane’s advantage.
4. “Impossible”? California runs on impossible
Today’s “boondoggle” is tomorrow’s postcard.
5. Proof it works is everywhere but here
Madrid-Barcelona: Once the world’s busiest air shuttle. After AVE trains went live, rail grabbed 82 % of the market and airlines slashed flights in half.
Seoul-Busan: KTX cut the 260-mi trip to 2 h 18 m; rail jumped to 66 % share, domestic flyers halved.
Taipei-Kaohsiung: Island-long HSR opened, the famous air bridge basically died by 2012.
Wuhan-Guangzhou: Even a 4-hour train stole a third of passengers from the 600-mi flight corridor.
Lesson: give people fast, frequent, downtown-to-downtown service and they’re so in.
6. Carbon, safety, sanity
Drive if you love gripping a wheel in stop-and-go; fly if you enjoy surprise middle seats and confiscated shampoo. Otherwise, the train is cleaner, calmer, and you’ll be able to finish your email without having to threaten your children.
7. Taking it all the way
A hypothetical 765-mile Eureka-to-San Diego train looks absurd—until you price it:
Plane: two legs, $250, 5-7 hours door-to-door.
Car rental: ~$675 and twelve espresso-fueled hours.
HSR: one seat, <5 hours, $177. Watch redwoods slide by at 220 mph and still make happy hour in Gaslamp.
8. The take-home
California already spends a high-speed-rail-sized fortune every year on roads and no one bats an eye.
Where HSR exists, it crushes mid-distance planes and claws cars off the highway.
Our own history—railroads, aqueducts, bridges, BART—shows “can’t be done” usually means “isn’t done yet.”
